Breaking Down The NHL Draft Lottery and How It Affects Anaheim

By Michael Walters

Yesterday the National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman announced the plan to finish the 2019-20 season and the process to award the Stanley Cup. He also discussed how the draft lottery would be conducted. A detailed summary can be found here: Bettman Announces Plan For Moving Forward.

The approval of a 24 team tournament to determine the Stanley Cup winner was not a surprise as it had been discussed in the previous weeks leading up to Bettman’s announcement. There are still details that have to be worked out, but the overall format involving the 24 teams has been set in motion.

Visit Our Hockey Store

Even with the specifics of the 24 team format being worked out, it’s not difficult to understand the process. The complicated part is the Draft Lottery, which was also part of Bettman’s announcement yesterday.

He discussed that there would be a Phase 1 on June 26th and that there could be a Phase 2 between the “Play-in” round and first official round of the playoffs. If any team from the top 7 draft spots doesn’t win any of the first three drawings, then a Second Phase will be conducted among the remaining teams eliminated in the “Play-in” round. Those teams would all have an equal chance of winning any Phase 2 drawing(s).

So I am going to run through the scenarios that could happen and explain them in detail. In the end, I will spell out what this means for Anaheim.

First, for context here is a chart from NHL Network showing the overall rankings for the draft and chances at the first overall pick. Remember we won’t know the specific teams in spots 8th through 15th since Phase 1 is happening before the playoff tournament. Hence, why they are labeled as Team A, Team B, etc.

Phase 1 Only Scenario

If the top 3 spots are all claimed by teams in the top 7 spots, then there is no need for a Phase 2. This is the most painless and simplest way the draft could unfold.

The remaining four teams from the top 7 spots will be assigned the 4th through 7th picks in the inverse order of their regular-season points percentage.

Then the 8th through 15th picks will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the “Play-in” Round in the inverse order of their points percentage.

One “Play-in” team wins a top-three pick

In this scenario, one of the 8 losing teams from the “Play-in” Round would claim a top 3 spot.

The remaining five teams from the top 7 spots will be assigned the 4th through 8th picks in the inverse order of their regular-season points percentage.

There would be one draw in Phase 2 for the one top pick selected with each team having a 12.5% to win. The 9th through 15th picks will be assigned to the remaining teams that are eliminated from the “Play-in” Round in the inverse order of their points percentage.

Two “Play-in” teams win a top-three pick

In this scenario, two of the 8 losing teams from the “Play-in” Round would claim a top 3 spot.

The remaining six teams from the top 7 spots will be assigned the 4th through 9th picks in the inverse order of their regular-season points percentage.

There would be two draws in Phase 2 for the two top picks that were selected. The 10th through 15th picks will be assigned to the remaining teams that are eliminated from the “Play-in” Round in the inverse order of their points percentage.

Three “Play-in” teams win a top-three pick

In this scenario, the top three picks are all claimed by losing teams from the “Play-in” Round.

As a result, the top 7 spots will be assigned the 4th through 10th picks in the inverse order of their points percentage. Basically, the original order for the top 7 spots would stay the same, they would just each shift down three spots.

There would be three draws in Phase 2 for all three top picks. The 11th through 15th picks will be assigned to the remaining teams that are eliminated from the “Play-in” Round in the inverse order of their points percentage.

How This Affects Anaheim

For the Anaheim Ducks, they have a chance at winning the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick in the draft. They have an 8.5% chance at the first pick, an 8.7% chance at the second pick, and an 8.9% chance at the third pick. If Anaheim doesn’t get a top-three pick, then they could end up picking 5th, 6th, 7th, or 8th.

If the top three picks are all claimed by those teams ranked ahead of Anaheim, then the Ducks would pick 5th.

If any team ranked below Anaheim wins a top-three pick, then the Ducks would move down in the draft according to the number of lower-ranked teams that pass them.

So for example, if any team ranked below Anaheim wins one of the top three spots, then the Ducks would move down one spot to the 6th pick. If any two teams ranked below Anaheim win two of the top three spots, then the Ducks would move down two spots to the 7th pick. If any three teams ranked below Anaheim win all three top spots, then the Ducks would at worst land the 8th pick.

The Ducks have an 8.5% chance at the 5th pick, a 34.5% at the 6th pick, a 26.7% chance at the 7th pick, and an 4.3% at the 8th pick.

Listen to our hockey podcast by clicking below or visit us at Podomatic, Spreaker, or YouTube.

Statement From DucksNPucks

This event is bigger than the Anaheim Ducks and sport of hockey. It affects the entire sports industry and the world as a whole. Our sympathies and concerns go out to anyone affected by this worldwide incident. This will be a trying time for the world, but the triumph of the human spirit will get us through this.

Stay strong, stay safe, be kind, and love one another.

Support us by becoming a DucksNPucks patron! Members can win game tickets, a $200 Cool Hockey gift card, and more!

Want to start your sports media career? Then Join The Puck Network!

DucksNPucks is part of The Puck Network, which covers the entire NHL. There are openings to cover your favorite team(s) and earn school credits! If you are interested, then apply by filling out the form here: Join Our Team. What are you waiting for? Start your sports media career TODAY!

May 27th, 2020